Airship Ventures starts countdown
May 11th, 2008 by Esther
May 11th, 2008 by Esther
Apr 25th, 2008 by Esther
I’ve just finished writing to all the speakers and signed-up participants for this year’s
Despite a strong speaker line-up and Imaginova’s broad market outreach, interest in
Apr 15th, 2008 by Esther
NextGen is the long awaited, still amorphous “next generation” of aviation technology that should enable so-called free flight, where aircraft can manage their own flight paths and avoid one another without constant oversight from centralized, human-operated air traffic control stations. It’s controversial, in some quarters at least, because it reduces the need for human controllers – even though they are currently overworked and in short supply. (For example, see this call for caution.)
The benefits include less congestion of air and airports, greater safety, shorter flying times, and of course less need for fuel, resulting in cleaner and cheaper flight..
At DayJet , trying to prove a new business model to a skeptical investor community (the customers seem to be believers), every gallon counts. And every thousand feet flying too low or every minute vectoring around another plane unnecessarily costs lots of gallons. So Bruce Holmes’ longtime passion has real business meaning for DayJet. These same issues have relatively smaller, but still vital consequences for the established airlines, but DayJet, with its shorter routes and its attempt to create a new market, will experience relative benefits several times those of the airlines if the technology and rule changes work out.
“But we’re not raising our hand alone,” says Holmes. DayJet is working with partners including Naverus, ITT and universities and airports throughout
Holmes has been leading this charge for many years, fostering a variety of private-public partnerships from his perch at NASA; now he’s on the other side with more freedom to be aggressive. Still, he cautions, things take time. The current order of business – for the next few months – is to work out a Memorandum of Agreement with the FAA for a demonstration. And that’s just the beginning: The RNPs take time to be generated, and the aircraft need to be outfitted with ADS-B technology and a new generation of digital radios.
“We call it a demo,” says Holmes, but actually it’s an implementation. “You can’t really demo it without just doing it.”
Holmes is working on the assumption that the effects will be significant over time. “There are 130 airports in seven [southeast] states of interest to us; 55 of them have no control towers. In those airports during bad weather, a plane can’t land until the one ahead of it has landed, and the pilot has gotten out and called the ATC from a land line or cell phone. And in others, by contrast, there can be enough of a mix of other general aviation and occasional airline traffic to benefit from NextGen capabilities even at airports that are not the main focus of the JPDO and FAA.” In either situation, NextGen will allow the planes to fly more directly, at higher, more cost-effective altitudes, and to land more quickly. What could possibly be wrong with that?
Well, one issue raised is cost. The costs of these systems are the subject of intense debate in both the general aviation and airline community (with the airline industry estimating $1 million per aircraft and the general aviation industry estimating costs at little more than $10,000 per aircraft). But both the cost and the benefit estimates are probably way off, says Holmes: “Trying to estimate the cost based on the last generation of radios is like trying to figure the price of the third generation iPhone based on the price of the first bag phones - AKA ‘bricks’ - we used in cars in the 1990’s.”
All this has already been demonstrated on a small scale, for what it’s worth, by Alaska Airlines, by general aviation operators in
Apr 6th, 2008 by Esther
[Disclosure/context: I’m an investor in Xcor, the company that announced its Lynx rocket-powered, two-person vehicle last week.]
Last month I was invited to give the outsider’s perspective at XCOR’s press conference announcing the Lynx, which was fully covered elsewhere, including the Wall Street Journal and WIRED. Here’s what I said (slightly cleaned up):
When I was growing up, I fully expected to go to the moon. For one thing, my father had helped develop a nuclear-powered rocket, though it never got above 1000 feet. But I didn’t feel personally involved. The people working in space were a priesthood, either scientists like my father, or engineers and bureaucrats lost in large enterprises and government agencies. The ones with the most imagination ended up writing science fiction, like the father of two XCOR employees, Jerry Pournelle.
That’s weird, because you could steal all XCOR’s plans (for one example), but you still could not build its rocket engines. That takes a combination of craft, engineering, testing…and black magic. (Plus a few patents, to be sure, many of them the work of Jeff Greason himself.)
Mar 30th, 2008 by Esther
Investor John B. Higginbotham, now with SpaceVest, grew up primarily in
Space jobs were scarce in 1979, so he joined Hewlett-Packard Company in the so-called “toy factory” division in
At that time the market for communications satellites was just opening up, following the
So Higginbotham and co-founder Jim Barrett set to work building a capital base in their start-up insurance company Intec (International Technology Underwriters). Since there was little experience from which to predict the results for launches and satellite operations, they had to build a company that was expert in communications satellites, launch vehicles and aerospace practices rather than actuarial tables. Soon they were recognized as leading experts in the field, turned to by insurers, lenders and investors alike, as they managed the dominant global insurance facility and covered billions of dollars of launch and satellites risks annually. “We essentially underwrote the expansion of commercial satellite communications during the ‘80’s by financing the risks of doing business in space. We even got Congress to pass legislation establishing liability conventions for all space operations in the
In 1991, Higginbotham sold his interest in Intec (later sold to AXA and renamed AXASpace) and started SpaceVest to invest in space businesses privately. In 1995, he expanded the firm’s investment operations by adding the first of what ended up as three institutional venture capital funds. By 2005, when Higginbotham retired from active management of venture capital operations, the firm had more than $270 million under management with investments in over 50 companies. The venture operation has since changed its name to RedShift Ventures, while Higginbotham continues to focus SpaceVest activities on strategic space-industry initiatives.
“Businesses based on space operations continue to be challenging,” Higginbotham says, “because the market has to be there. You can’t build a business without customers. We made sure to invest in companies that had a clear market available for them. Many of the emerging businesses today need to keep this focus.”
SpaceVest is today involved with various industrial partners and clients in a number of initiatives designed to bring new business models and market efficiencies to the industry. One of them, Higginbotham says, may be ultimately make a material contribution by providing another solid customer base for today’s launch companies – or at least those that can actually offer reliable and cost-effective spacecraft and launch services.
Mar 25th, 2008 by Esther
He worked at Disney for 10 years, and more recently as chief technology officer of the DNI from June 2005 to June 2007. Now he’s taken on another challenge – health care - as well as media, sports and themed entertainment. And he’ll be speaking at Flight School in June as well as the New Yorker’s conference in May.
By training, he is a neuroscientist; he wrote his PhD thesis at
After a year as a post-doc in neuroanatomy at
Haseltine’s research in military flight simulation introduced him to the emerging field of virtual reality, and in 1992 he joined Walt Disney Imagineering to help found the Virtual Reality Studio, which he ended up running until his departure from Disney in 2002. By the time he left Disney, Haseltine was head of R&D for the entire corporation, including film, television, theme parks, internet and consumer products.
In the aftermath of 9/11, he joined the National Security Agency as Associate Director, in charge of NSA Research and Development, where he directed a broad range of projects, specializing in counter-terrorism technology.
When Congress created the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in 2005, he was promoted to become its first chief technology officer (formally, Associate Director National Intelligence, reporting to the Director). In his two years there, he oversaw all science and technology efforts within the
“When the
Last year, he created the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity – an incubator for projects that couldn’t find a home elsewhere, especially within the establishment. Its name is no accident: Using the word “activity” as opposed agency, says Haseltine, “made it faster and simpler to create the organization, inasmuch as specific words carry enormous weight in such situations. If we’d called it an ‘agency,’ for example, the finance people asserted - rightly or wrongly - that it would have had to have its own separate funding ‘program’ from Congress (also a term of art)…and its own Director, HR system, Finance officers and so on. It didn’t matter if all of this was actually true; all that mattered was that important staffers in ODNI thought it might be true…” IARPA’s mission is to develop revolutionary technologies that are (perceived as) too high-risk for any regular agency to pursue. IARPA also focuses on emerging opportunities in the “white spaces” of the intelligence community that do not fit the mission of any agency and technologies that benefit multiple agencies.
Indeed, Haseltine believes the current situation provides a lot of opportunity for start-ups. Crises have led to the birth of many new markets, he says. They include UAVs, GPS, even the Internet itself, which was created in response to the Soviet threat. He describes the recent success of UAVs, which were pretty much ignored by the armed services. After all, they competed with existing methods and technology. “If you’re a parent, you shouldn’t ask the permission of your first-born to have another child.”
So DARPA funded UAV’s as an experiment with an operational partner. They were used in the field in
So, Haseltine asks, will the end of the Space Shuttle and the rise of
Mar 20th, 2008 by Esther
I just visited DayJet to chat with Ed Iacobucci, who is going to be a speaker at
I was a good example of what DayJet expected and what is turning out to be true: The vast majority of its trips are replacing car trips, not air trips (either commercial or charter). Had I not been able to use DayJet, I would have taken a taxi.
(Just for the record: Last year I took a 90-minute paid air-taxi trip on SATSair, from
I won’t explain the whole concept here, but let’s just say it reminds me of Federal Express – even though its concept is precisely the opposite. Way back in the mid-70s when FedEx started, it created an entirely new concept. Packages don’t care where they go on the way to their destination, so FedEx would send them all through
DayJet’s premise is the opposite. People do care where they go, and the costs of complexity are way down given today’s computer systems and software, so Iacobucci created a company where there is no routine: Every trip is an exception, scheduled for specific passengers… but by computers, not by people. It’s no surprise this comes from the man who created the Citrix operating system, which is basically software for allocating scarce computer resources in real-time. DayJet allocates scarce aircraft and crew resources in near-real-time. (You can find out more at www.DayJet.com.)
But just as the courier-service people didn’t quite understand the point of FedEx, so do today’s charter operators not understand the implications of DayJet.
“We’ve had to create new performance indicators,” says Iacobucci. “Our load factor right now is about 1.5 [of 3 seats on a plane]. But our effective load factor is lower, because we often fly people extra miles to get them where they are going – and they pay for the originally requested mileage. On the other hand, the company does very well when it fills all three seats – and as it scales up that becomes easier and easier.” Another metric is “quality of load,” which is determined by the customers’ time windows: Did customers book within a broad time window, spending less money, or did they demand tighter scheduling (and receive it)?
For example, there are two flights, from A to B and from B to C. Both have two passengers, so the apparent load factor is 2/3. But there are three passengers, one going from A to B, one from B to C, and the third from A to C, so the *effective* load factor was 3 trips out of 6 available, or ½. And the quality of load was even tougher to calculate, depending on the specifics of the customers’ time windows and the distances flown rather than the number of flight segments.…
Overall, Iacobucci says, the company is pretty much tracking expectations…after a late start last October mostly due to late delivery of the aircraft.
Training the customers
Another one is simply the time it takes for people to understand the service. (I remember the early FedEx commercials. First they explained the service. Then they focused on how even small businesses could use FedEx.) DayJet has the benefit of the Web, so that they can get price quotes for themselves and experience (even if a first they don’t understand) the trade-offs. For starters, you don’t get a discount for booking in advance: Since the schedules are fixed only the night before each day’s flights, being early doesn’t help. (Unlike most charter operators, DayJet owns its own aircraft, so it doesn’t have to allocate aircraft early or juggle them late in response to a private aircraft owner’s whims.)
Instead, you can get a better price by stating a bigger time window: I want to leave after 10 and arrive before 3, vs. I want to leave at 10 and get there by 11. The flight for the first is priced on the assumption that the capacity can be shared with at least one other passenger, while the second in essence pays for the whole plane. (That of course will be adjusted over time, in response to demand, capacity, competition and other factors. But it’s the essence of the DayJet per-seat concept.) You can also pay extra to be guaranteed a nonstop flight. “Every constraint has a cost,” says Iacobucci. “And every loosening of a constraint [such as a broad time window] makes things cheaper.”
So people are beginning to learn how it works… And Iacobucci can watch that happening through his software, which has one of the greatest sets of data and visualizations I have ever seen. New customers’ initial queries are wide off the mark: They enter constraints that result in too-high prices or they look for low prices and find flights that don’t suit them. But over time, each customer tends to make fewer queries before booking, and the initial pricing is closer to what the customer ends up paying. And experienced customers don’t book in advance.
Perhaps the most interesting is the metric that indicates how people value their time – which was estimated in one NASA study at $34 an hour for a generic business traveler. You can determine that, of course, by how much extra people will pay to save an hour of time. (Of course, even for any one person that will vary over a day and across days…) DayJet’s customer base, of course, is hardly average – and we’re talking mostly about people spending their employers’ money, not their own. The day I was there I saw figures ranging from $12 an hour to $300…
And how is it trending? If people become more productive through DayJet, over time they may be willing to pay more for the service. And indeed, says Iacobucci, “We’re seeing that the estimated value of time is higher for repeat customers.”
Mar 5th, 2008 by Esther
In the last week, I have found two new speakers for
JetAVIVA is taking a lower-hurdle approach, supplying services only at this point. “We were in the very-light jet space,” says co-founder and CEO Ben Marcus, “and so we decided to build a very-light management company.” Now 25 (true), they were both at Eclipse, Marcus as a salesman and flight test engineer and Sigari as a salesmen and a propulsion systems engineer They left Eclipse on good terms…and are filling a hole the larger company can’t effectively address (for now). Their original idea, back in March 2006, was to run a VLJ management company that offers an air-taxi service using lift provided by individual owner’s jets. This is the traditional charter model: An operator makes money on providing operating and management services, while the capital costs are borne by the individual owners. The owners earn a little money by leasing out their planes (though they get to discover the costs of maintenance, which often eat up any profits), and they get the depreciation tax benefits. And, of course, they get to say “my plane.”
I like this company and these guys. They probably have a better understanding of the private light-jet market than anyone around, and they are careful businessmen. Right now they have about 10 people and four Eclipses under management, and they are profitable. Where they go in the future is unclear, but they’re not taking any huge risks along the way…which seems to be the right flight path for now!
Feb 9th, 2008 by Esther
We now have dates as well as a co-sponsor for Flight School 2008. It will take place in
Our lead-off speakers will include. Same here: Suggestions are welcome (except no submissions from corporate speaker bureaus!):
And we hope our participants will include:
You!
You can comment below, or e-mail me privately at edyson@boxbe.com. (You’ll get a challenge, but if you put Flight School in your subject line I’ll fish the message out of the Boxbe waiting list even if you don’t take the challenge.)
For the more formal information and registration info, go to….
http://www.aviation.com/flightschool
Jun 23rd, 2007 by Esther
I’m busy thanking all the wonderful speakers, but here’s some press coverage: